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USDA Bi-Weekly International Meat, Poultry & Egg Review


05 May 2015

USDA Bi-Weekly International Meat, Poultry & Egg Review - 5 May 2015USDA Bi-Weekly International Meat, Poultry & Egg Review - 5 May 2015


International Trade Highlights

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) recently issued its bi-annual report, Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade. According to the publication, world beef and veal production during 2015 is forecast at 59.01 MMT. This was down 1.1 percent from 2014. Beef production in the U.S. during 2015 is predicted to total 11.06 MMT, which is slightly lower than 2014. The U.S. is the leading beef production nation. During 2015, beef production in Brazil, the second largest beef producing country, is forecast to reach 9.82 MMT. This is 1.0 percent more than 2014. Beef production in the EU is expected to increase slightly over 2014 to 7.44 MMT. During 2015, world beef and veal exports are forecast to increase 2.0 percent over 2014 to 10.20 MMT. During 2015, beef exports from India are expected to increase 15.3 percent over 2014 to 2.40 MMT. India is the leading beef exporting country. Brazil’s beef exports are forecast to total 2.01 MMT, 5.0 percent more than 2014. Australia’s beef exports during 2015 are expected to fall 14.1 percent from 2014 to 1.59 MMT. U.S. beef exports during 2015 are forecast at 1.10 MMT, which is down 5.9 percent from 2014. During 2015, world beef and veal imports are forecast to total 7.80 MMT, which is down 1.2 percent from 2014. The U.S. is predicted to be the largest beef importing country in 2015 with 1.32 MMT, which is 1.3 percent lower than 2014. Russia’s beef imports during 2015 are expected to fall 18.4 percent from 2014 to 750,000 MT, due to declining oil revenues and a weaker currency. Japan’s beef imports are expected total 720,000 MT, which is 2.6 percent less than 2014. During 2015, China’s beef imports are predicted to increase 19.9 percent over 2014 to 500,000 MT. Meanwhile, FAS forecast world pork production during 2015 to total 110.87 MMT. This is slightly higher than 2014. China’s pork production during 2015 is expected to reach 56.60 MMT, which nearly unchanged from 2014. China is the primary pork producing nation. During 2015, pork production in the EU, which is the second largest pork producing country, is forecast to total 22.45 MMT. This is slightly higher than 2014. U.S. pork production during 2015 is predicted to total a record 11.00 MMT as a lower incidence of porcine epidemic diarrhea (PEDv) is expected to strengthen slaughter ready hog supplies. During 2015, world pork exports are forecast at 6.82 MMT, which is 1.0 percent lower than 2014. Exports by major traders are lower due to a reduction in shipments by China, the U.S. and Brazil and are not offset from gains by the EU. Pork exports in the EU are forecast to 2.25 MMT during 2015, which is 3.4 percent more than 2014. This expansion is supported by favorable prices in a number of markets including China. The EU is the largest pork exporting country. U.S. pork exports during 2015 are predicted to fall 2.2 percent from 2014 to 2.16 MMT as a strong dollar curtails demand, in spite of increased production and competitive domestic prices. During 2015, Canada’s pork exports are expected to increase slightly over 2014 to 1.23 MMT. World pork imports during 2015 are forecast to total 6.03 MMT, which is down 5.3 percent from 2014. Aggregate import demand is negatively impacted by Russian imports due to its weak economy as well as the ban on shipments from key suppliers and disease-based restrictions. Japan’s pork imports are predicted to decrease 5.8 percent from 2014 to 1.23 MMT. Japan is the main pork importing nation. During 2015, Mexico is expected to import 840,000 MT of pork, which is up 2.7 percent over 2014. China’s pork imports during 2015 are forecast to increase 5.1 percent from 2014 to 800,000 head. Pork imports from the U.S. are forecast at 556,000 MT, 21.7 percent higher than 2014.

Cattle, Sheep and Pigs

North America: CanFax recently published Canada’s current cattle on feed numbers for terminal feedlots with 1,000 or more head in the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. According to the data, Canada’s total cattle on feed on April 1, 2015 equaled 878,763 head. This was 10.7 percent less than one year ago and was 10.3 percent less than the five year average. During March, the number of cattle placed on feed declined 3.1 percent from a year ago to 155,359 head. Also, this was 15.7 percent lower than the five year average. Steers placed on feed totaled 117,332 head, which comprised 75.4 percent of the total. Heifers placed on feed totaled 38,027 head. More specifically, placements of feeder cattle weighing less than 600 pounds equaled 7,577 head, which was 34.2 percent less than last year. Placements weighing 600 to 699 pounds totaled 17,356 head, 30.1 percent lower than a year ago. Placements weighing 700 to 799 pounds were up 2.8 percent over last year, amounting to 43,366 head. Finally, placements of feeder cattle weighing more than 800 pounds totaled 87,060 head, which was 6.5 percent higher than a year ago. Meanwhile, during March, Canada’s fed cattle marketings fell 10.4 percent from one year ago to 129,529 head. Also, this was 8.0 percent less than the five year average. To view the entire report, visit the CanFax website at http://www.canfax.ca/.

On April 22, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its monthly Cold Storage report. According to the report, as of March 31, 2015, beef in U.S. cold storage facilities equaled 479.8 million pounds. This was 18.2 percent higher than a year ago and was 5.7 percent higher than the five year average. Specifically, boneless beef in cold storage rose 20.3 percent over a year ago to 438.8 million pounds. Beef cuts in storage totaled 41.0 million pounds, which was unchanged from last year. In the meantime, at the end of March, pork in U.S. cold storage totaled 668.6 million pounds. This was 16.2 percent more than a year ago and was 13.7 percent more than the five year average. Specifically, hams in storage equaled 100.7 million pounds, 12.6 percent more than last year. The volume of pork bellies in storage fell 13.9 percent from a year ago to 68.7 million pounds. Loins in cold storage totaled 42.1 million pounds, 1.6 percent higher than last year. Pork ribs in storage equaled 113.7 million pounds, 5.8 percent less than a year ago. The volume of pork butts in storage increased 70.7 percent over last year to 34.4 million pounds. Pork trimmings in storage equaled 68.9 million pounds, which was 86.8 percent higher than a year ago. The volume of veal in U.S. cold storage was up 179.2 percent from a year ago, totaling 8.2 million pounds. Lamb and mutton in cold storage equaled 34.2 million pounds, which was 22.0 percent higher than last year. To obtain the complete report, visit the NASS website at http://www.nass.usda.gov/.

On April 24, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) published its monthly Cattle on Feed report. According to the data, on April 1, 2015, cattle and calves on feed for the U.S. slaughter market in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.80 million head. This was relatively unchanged from one year ago but was down 1.2 percent from two years ago. The number of cattle placed on feed during March rose slightly from one year ago to 1.81 million head. This was 4.0 percent lower than two years ago. Steer and steer calves on feed totaled 7.46 million head, which was 5.4 percent more than last year and accounted for 69.0 percent of the total. Heifer and heifer calves on feed totaled 3.34 million head, which was 10.1 percent less than a year ago. More specifically, placements of feeder cattle weighing less than 600 pounds equaled 365,000 head, which was 14.1 percent lower than last year. Placements weighing 600 to 699 pounds were down 5.2 percent from a year ago, totaling 275,000 head. Placements weighing 700 to 799 pounds equaled 449,000 head, which was 3.6 percent less than last year. Finally, placements of feeder cattle weighing more than 800 pounds increased 16.1 percent over a year ago to 720,000 head. In the meantime, U.S. fed cattle marketings during March equaled 1.63 million head. This was down 1.7 percent from one year ago and was down 5.4 percent from two years ago. Also, this was the lowest marketings for March since the series began in 1996. The complete report is available on the NASS website at http://www.nass.usda.gov/.

On April 23, USDA NASS released its Livestock Slaughter report. According to the numbers, during the first quarter of 2015, U.S. cattle slaughter totaled 6.85 million head. This was 4.8 percent less than the previous quarter and was 5.5 percent less than a year ago. Beef production during the first quarter fell 5.9 percent from the previous quarter and 3.4 percent from a year ago to 5.59 billion pounds. At the end of March, live cattle weights equaled 1,348 pounds, which was 27 pounds heavier than a year ago. Meanwhile, U.S. hog slaughter during the first quarter of 2015 was nearly unchanged from the previous quarter to 28.53 million head. This was 5.9 percent higher than a year ago. First quarter pork production rose slightly over the previous quarter to 6.13 billion pounds. Also, this was 6.5 percent higher from a year ago. Live hog weights at the end of March were unchanged from last year, amounting to 285 pounds. Meanwhile, U.S. sheep and lamb slaughter during the first quarter fell 6.4 percent from the previous quarter to 492.9 thousand head. This was 1.2 percent lower from a year ago. U.S. lamb and mutton production during the first quarter totaled 35.3 million pounds, which was a little less than the previous quarter but was a little more than a year ago. Goat slaughter during the first quarter of 2015 equaled 101.4 thousand head, which was 21.1 percent lower than the previous quarter and was 1.7 percent lower than a year ago. To obtain the complete monthly report, visit the NASS website at http://www.nass.usda.gov/.

Pacific Rim: Recently, the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) published South Korea’s beef and pork import data for March 2015. According to the statistics, during March, South Korea imported 23,619 MT of beef. This was up 27.9 percent over the previous month and was up 2.0 percent over March 2014. More specifically, imports of frozen product totaled 20,123 MT, which accounted for 85.2 percent of the total. Imports of fresh, chilled product totaled 3,496 MT, of which Australia’s share was 68.6 percent. South Korea’s beef imports from Australia during March totaled 14,324 MT, which was 39.5 percent more than the previous month and was 7.7 percent more than March 2014. During the first quarter of the year, South Korea’s beef imports from Australia equaled 39,855 MT, which was 5.5 percent greater than last year. Australia was the primary beef import market for South Korea with 56.8 percent of the total. During March, South Korea imported 6,809 MT of beef from the U.S. This was 6.4 percent higher than the previous month but was 11.1 percent lower than March 2014. Year-to-date beef imports from the U.S. totaled 23,764 MT, which was 11.2 percent less than a year ago. Beef imports from New Zealand during March rose 43.5 percent over the previous month to 2,119 MT. Also, this was up 6.4 percent from March 2014. Total year-to-date beef imports from New Zealand equaled 5,373 MT, 8.3 percent less than a year ago. Overall, South Korea’s beef imports during the first quarter of 2015 totaled 70,201 MT, which was 1.1 percent lower than the same period a year ago. Meanwhile, during March, South Korea imported 41,110 MT of pork, which was up 32.9 percent over February and was up 38.5 percent over March 2014. Pork imports from the U.S. during March rose 68.7 percent from the previous month and 36.0 percent from March 2014 to 13,367 MT. During the first quarter, South Korea’s pork imports from the U.S. were 4.2 percent above a year ago, amounting to 32,745 MT. The U.S. was the leading supplier of pork to South Korea with 28.9 percent of the total. Pork imports from Germany during March rose 12.5 percent over the previous month and 53.1 percent over March 2014 to 6,984 MT. Year-to-date pork imports from Germany equaled 20,362 MT, which was 76.9 percent greater than last year. During March, South Korea imported 5,720 MT of pork from Spain. This was up 11.7 percent from February and was up 166.7 percent from March 2014. During the first quarter, pork imports from Spain were 199.5 percent above a year ago, totaling 17,698 MT. Overall, South Korea’s total pork imports during the first quarter of 2015 totaled 113,399 MT, which was 32.5 percent above the corresponding period a year ago. Additional data on South Korea’s trade can be found on the KITA website at http://www.kita.org/.

Poultry

US poultry production is revised 1% higher to a record 18.0 million tons on increased slaughter and heavier weights. Despite increased supplies, US exports are revised 9% lower to 3.0 million tons due to a stronger dollar and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) related trade restrictions with some countries. Broiler meat exports by major traders are revised 5% lower as declines in Brazil and the US more than offset gains by the EU. Brazil’s shipments are constrained by slow economic growth in a number of countries despite opportunities in markets currently restricting the US. Argentina’s exports to Venezuela are expected to contract due to economic weakness in Venezuela and lower oil prices. Angola’s imports are forecast to decline due to temporary trade restrictions and currency shortages. The entire report is available on the FAS website at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/livestock_poultry.pdf.

Avian Influenza Update in the US: Since December 2014, the USDA has confirmed several cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza HPAI H% in the Pacific, Central, and Mississippi flyways (or migratory bird paths). The disease has been found in wild birds, as well as in a few backyard and commercial poultry flocks. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) considers the risk to people from these HPAI H5 infections to be low. No human cases of these HPAI H5 viruses have been detected in the in the US. As of April 17, 2015 full-country bans on US live poultry and poultry products were imposed by 12 trading partners that accounted for $744 million or 12% of total poultry exports in 2014. Regionalized bans on US live poultry and poultry products have been imposed by 37 trading partners accounting for $4.2 billion or 67% of total poultry exports in 2014. No HPAI-related restrictions or regionalization protocols have been imposed by roughly 110 other trading partners accounting for 22% of total poultry exports in 2014. Angola falls under this category with $264 million worth of US poultry imports emerging as the third most important export market for US poultry. 

The H5N8 HPAI has been confirmed in Washington, Oregon, California, Utah, Nevada, and Idaho. H5N2 HPAI has been confirmed in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Missouri, Minnesota, Arkansas, Kansas, South Dakota, Montana, North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. A novel strain of H5N1 HPAI has been confirmed in Washington, which different from the H5N1 HPAI strains in Asia and North Africa.

On April 13, 2015 HPAI was detected in a commercial flock of table egg layer chickens in Jefferson County, WI with a loss of 180,000 birds. On April 20, 2015 HPAI was detected in a flock of 3,800,000 commercial table egg layer chickens on a farm in Osceola County, Iowa. Iowa is the nation’s largest producer of table eggs for human consumption with 19% of total US production in 2014. These birds represent 7% of the total egg layer chicken flock and 1.2% of total US table egg layer chicken flock. On April 22, 2015 HPAI was detected in a flock of 800,000 commercial table egg layer chickens in Jefferson County, MN. On April 23, 2015 HPAI was detected in a flock of commercial table egg layer chickens in Clay County, MN with a loss of 275,000 birds. More cases of HPAI were detected April 24, 2015 in a flock of commercial table egg layer chickens in Jefferson County, WI (1,031,000 birds) and April 27, 2015 in a flock of commercial table egg layer chickens in Sioux County, Iowa (1,700,000 birds). USDA APHIS made more HPAI confirmations April 28, 2015 in commercial table egg layer flocks in Iowa (Sioux County 3,660,000 birds, O’Brien County 338,000 birds, and Osceola County 258,000 birds).

Prior to April 24, 2015 HPAI outbreaks have occurred in 55 commercial turkey farms in the upper Midwest for a combined reported loss to date of 3,166,000 birds with Minnesota farms accounting for 81% of the loss or 5.5% of the total number of turkeys slaughtered in Minnesota in 2014. Prior to April 24, 2015 21 affected farms in Minnesota and Wisconsin have reported losses totaling 1,900,000 commercial turkeys representing 67% of commercial turkeys lost in Minnesota, 100% lost in Wisconsin, and 61% of all commercial turkeys lost in the 5 states in the upper Midwest since March 27, 2015. More HPAI detections were made April 24, 2015 at a commercial turkey farm in Sac County, Iowa (33,900 birds), which is about 6 miles from the first outbreak in Buena Vista County, Iowa, as well as at a commercial poultry farm in LaMoure County, North Dakota (71,500 birds) and a commercial turkey farm in Kandiyohi County, Minnesota (177,900 birds). On April 27, 2015 USDA APHIS reported more confirmations of HPAI at commercial turkey farms in Stearns County, Minnesota (26,900 birds), Barron County, Wisconsin (83,300 birds), and Redwood County, Minnesota (pending).

In the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released on April 9, 2015, USDA lowered the broiler export forecast for 2015 to 6.680 billion pounds, a reduction of 420 million pounds from the March projections. The recovery in exports after US-wide highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)-related restrictions has been limited by weak economic growth in a number of key markets and the strong dollar. Turkey exports were also reduced as the strength of the dollar makes it difficult to expand exports in the face of HPAI restrictions from a number of countries. Turkey exports were forecast at 720 million pounds for the year, down 45 million from the March projections. The egg export forecast was unchanged at 405 million dozen. USDA APHIS made more HPAI confirmations April 28, 2015 in commercial turkey flocks in Minnesota (Stearns County 19,100 birds, Steel County 82,900 birds, Swift pending, and Kandiyohi 8,400 birds and pending more).

Source: USDA AMS/USDA FAS/USDA APHIS/USDA FSIS/USDA OCE/ProMED/OIE (World Organization for AnimalHealth)/News Wires

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