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USDA International Meat Review


03 March 2014

USDA International Meat Review - 27 February 2014USDA International Meat Review - 27 February 2014


USDA International Meat Review

Trade Highlights

Recently, the USDA published its USDA Agricultural Projections to 2023. According to the report, the livestock sector is slowing recovering from high feed prices and drought over the past few years. Improving returns have provided reasons for increased livestock production. As a result, total US red meat production is projected to rise over the projection period. Low cow inventories will limit recovery from recent drought conditions for several years. Beef production is expected to decline through 2016 with lower beef cow inventories and expected heifer retention. Beef cow numbers are expected to increase from 29 million head at the beginning of 2014 to over 33 million head in 2022- 23. As feed costs decrease, pork producers are expected to increase farrowings, which will lead to an increase in pork production over the next decade. The projected increase in US read meat exports over the next decade reflects steady global economic growth, a continued weak US dollar and foreign demand for selected meat cuts. Most US beef exports are to Mexico, Canada and Pacific Rim nations. Recovery of beef exports to Japan and South Korea is expected to continue. US pork exports are projected to increase over the next decade. Production efficiency in the US pork sector boosts international competitiveness. The key markets for long term growth of US pork exports are Mexico and Pacific Rim countries. The complete report is available on the USDA website at http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/ers/94005/2014/OCE141.pdf.

On February 20, the USDA released the preliminary results of the 2012 Census of Agriculture. The Census, which has been conducted since 1840, accounts for all US farms and ranches and those who operate them. For more information about the Census, including access to the current 2012 Census preliminary report, additional materials and full final report when released in May, go to the USDA website at http://www.agcensus.usda.gov/Newsroom/2014/02_20_2014.php.

North America

On February 20, the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) and the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) published the quarterly Outlook for US Agricultural Trade. According to the report, exports for US agricultural products during fiscal year (FY) 2014 are expected to total a record $142.6 billion, which is up from the November estimate of $137.0 billion. This was 1.2 percent more than 2013. During 20143, exports of livestock products are predicted to total $19.0 billion, down from the November forecast of $19.4 billion. However, this is up slightly over 2013. Exports of beef and veal during 2014 are forecast at 800,000 MT, unchanged from the prior forecast. The value of beef and veal exports during 2014 is expected to total $5.3 billion, up from the November estimate of $5.0 billion. US pork exports during 2014 are projected to total 1.7 MMT, which is down from the previous estimate of 1.8 MMT. The value of pork exports is expected to total $5.4 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.5 billion. During 2014, beef and pork variety meat exports are forecast at 700,000 MT, unchanged from the November estimate. The value of variety meat exports is predicted to total $1.4 billion, down from the prior forecast of $1.5 billion. Meanwhile, US imports of agricultural products during FY 2014 are forecast at $110.0 billion, up from the November forecast of $109.5 billion. Also, this is 6.0 percent greater than 2013. The value of imports of livestock and meats is forecast at $11.0 billion, up from the November forecast of $10.7 billion. This is 9.0 percent higher than 2013. Imports of cattle and calves during 2014 are forecast at 2.0 million head, unchanged from the prior estimate. The value of the imports of cattle and calves is expected to total $2.0 billion, up from the previous forecast of $1.9 billion. During 2014, swine imports are forecast at 4.8 million head, unchanged from the November estimate. The value of swine imports is forecast to total $300 million, unchanged from November. Fresh, beef and veal imports during 2014 are predicted to equal 800,000 MT, up from the previous forecast of 700,000 MT. The value of beef and veal imports is pegged at $4.0 billion, up from the prior estimate of $3.9 billion. During 2014, fresh, pork imports are expected to total 400,000 MT, unchanged from November. The value is forecast at $1.5 billion, the same as the previous forecast. To view the detailed report, including a world outlook, go to the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov/.

On February 21, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its monthly Cattle on Feed report. According to the numbers, cattle and calves on feed for the US slaughter market for feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head equaled 10.76 million head on February 1, 2014. This was 2.8 percent less than one year ago and was 8.9 percent less than two years ago. During January, 2.03 million head of cattle were placed on feed, which was up 8.6 percent over one year ago and was up 9.9 percent over two years ago. Placements in each weight category increased over a year ago. More specifically, placements of feeder cattle weighing less than 600 pounds equaled 470,000 head, which was 4.4 percent higher than a year ago. Placements weighing 600 to 699 head were up 12.8 percent over a year ago, amounting to 440,000 head. Placements weighing 700 to 799 pounds totaled 560,000 head, which was 5.7 percent more than last year. Finally, placements weighing more than 800 pounds were 12.0 percent higher than a year ago, totaling 559,000 head. In the meantime, during February, fed cattle marketings equaled 1.79 million head. This was 5.5 percent less than one year ago and was 1.5 percent less than two years ago. Additionally, according to the USDA NASS, cattle and calves on feed in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head comprised 83.4 percent of all cattle and calves on feed in the US on January 1, 2014, down from 83.8 percent on January 1, 2013. Marketings of fed cattle for feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head during 2013 represented 87.8 percent of all cattle marketed from feedlots in the US This was down from 88.5 percent during 2012. The complete report, which also includes 2013 monthly cattle on feed estimates, as well as the number of feedlots, inventory, and annual marketings by size group for 2012 and 2013, can be found on the NASS website at http://www.nass.usda.gov/.

On February 21, USDA NASS released its monthly Cold Storage report. According to the report, as of January 31, 2014, beef in US cold storage facilities equaled 429.3 million pounds. This was 11.4 percent less than last year and was 7.5 percent less than the five year average. More specifically, boneless beef in cold storage totaled 388.9 million pounds, which was 7.6 percent lower than a year ago. Beef cuts in cold storage equaled 40.4 million pounds, 36.7 percent less than last year. Meanwhile, at the end of January, 623.7 million pounds of pork was in US cold storage. This was up 2.9 percent over the previous year and was up 10.2 percent over the five year average. Specifically, the volume of hams in storage equaled 107.7 million pounds, which was a little lower than a year ago. The volume of pork bellies in storage was 137.2 percent above last year, totaling 86.4 million pounds. Pork loins in storage equaled 42.6 million pounds, 3.1 percent less than a year ago. The volume of ribs in storage was down 1.2 percent from a year ago, amounting to 113.0 million pounds. Pork butts in cold storage totaled 21.2 million pounds, which was 31.8 percent lower than last year. Pork trimmings in storage totaled 40.8 million pounds, which was down 29.5 percent from a year ago. The volume of pork variety meats in cold storage was up 19.2 percent over last year, totaling 33.5 million pounds. To obtain the entire report, go to the NASS website at http://www.nass.usda.gov/.

Recently, CanFax issued Canada’s current cattle on feed numbers for terminal feedlots with 1,000 or more head in the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. According to the data, Canada’s total cattle on feed on February 1, 2014 equaled 979,133 head. This was up 9.6 percent over one year ago and was up 5.4 percent over the five year average. Additionally, this was the highest February inventory since 2007. During January, 134,339 head of cattle were placed on feed. This was 93.2 percent greater than one year ago and was 38.5 percent greater than the five year average. The number of steers placed on feed equaled 81,630 head, which accounted for 60.8 percent of the total. Heifers placed on feed equaled 52,709 head. Placements of feeder cattle increased over a year ago in each weight category. More specifically, placements of feeder cattle weighing less than 600 pounds totaled 23,070 head, which was 66.2 percent higher than a year ago. Placements of feeder cattle weighing 600 to 699 pounds were up 152.2 percent over a year ago, totaling 30,019 head. Placements weighing 700 to 799 pounds increased 85.5 percent over last year to 34,426 head. Finally, placements of feeder cattle weighing more than 800 pounds equaled 46,824 head, which was 86.0 percent higher than a year ago. In the meantime, during February, Canada’s fed cattle marketings totaled 130,710 head. This was nearly unchanged from one year ago but was down 10.5 percent from the five year average. To obtain the complete report, go to the CanFax website at http://www.canfax.ca/.

Pacific Rim

Recently, Japan’s Agriculture and Livestock Industries Corporation (ALIC) published Japan’s red meat import data for December 2013 and for the year-end. According to the numbers, during December, Japan imported 38,915 MT of beef. This was down 20.8 percent from November but was up 6.6 percent over December 2012. More specifically, frozen beef imports totaled 19,119 MT, which was 41.4 percent lower than the previous month and was 6.1 percent lower than December 2012. Conversely, fresh, chilled beef imports rose 20.2 percent over the previous month and 22.3 percent over December 2012 to 19,708 MT. During 2013, Japan’s total frozen beef imports equaled 321,950 MT, which accounted for 60.2 percent of the total; while fresh, chilled beef imports equaled 212,252 MT. During December, Japan’s beef imports from Australia fell 12.3 percent from the previous month and 6.1 percent from December 2012 to 23,266 MT. During 2013, Japan’s total beef imports from Australia equaled 286,546 MT, which was 10.1 percent below 2012. Australia was the main provider of beef to Japan with 53.6 percent of the total imports. Beef imports from the US during December equaled 11,943 MT. This was 35.3 percent less than the previous month but was 53.9 percent more than December 2012. Japan’s beef imports from the US during 2013 were 41.0 percent more than 2012, amounting to 186,028 MT. The US market share during 2013 was 34.8 percent. During December, Japan imported 2,130 MT of beef from New Zealand, which was 58.7 percent more than the previous month and was 2.0 percent more than December 2012. During 2013, Japan imported 29,439 MT of beef from New Zealand, which was 6.3 percent less than 2012. Overall, Japan’s total beef imports during 2013 equaled 534,848 MT, 3.9 percent above 2012. During November, Japan’s beef marketings totaled 86,689 MT, which was 19.1 percent higher than the previous month and was 10.4 percent higher than a year ago. Marketings of imported beef equaled 52,397 MT, 21.5 percent more than a year ago. Marketings of domestic beef equaled 34,292 MT, 3.2 percent less than a year ago. Japan’s beef stocks at the end of November equaled 131,114 MT. Although this was down 1.8 percent from the previous month, it was up 22.9 percent over a year ago. Imported beef stocks were 29.0 percent more than a year ago, amounting to 116,742 MT. Domestic beef stocks were 11.3 percent lower than a year ago, totaling 14,372 MT.

During December, Japan imported 62,991 MT of pork. This was up 1.9 percent over the previous month and was up 6.4 percent over December 2012. Specifically, imports of frozen pork totaled 35,800 MT, which was 4.3 percent lower than the previous month and was 2.7 percent lower than December 2012. Imports of fresh, chilled pork totaled 27,185 MT, which was 11.5 percent higher than the previous month and was 21.3 percent higher than December 2012. During 2013, Japan’s total frozen pork imports equaled 444,015 MT, which accounted for 60.2 percent of the total; while fresh, chilled pork imports equaled 293,920 MT. During December, Japan’s pork imports from the US rose 8.9 percent over November and rose 9.3 percent over December 2012 to 24,122 MT. During 2013, Japan’s pork imports from the US were 10.4 percent less than 2012, amounting to 281,049 MT. The US was the leading supplier of pork to Japan with 38.1 percent of the total imports. Japan’s pork imports from Canada during December equaled 12,768 MT, which was up 4.1 percent over the previous month but was down 7.2 percent from December 2012. Total imports from Canada during 2013 equaled 142,128 MT, 17.6 percent less than 2012. During 2012, Japan imported 113,951 MT of pork from Denmark, which was 2.4 percent lower than 2012. Overall, Japan’s total pork imports during 2013 equaled 737,971 MT, which was 5.2 percent below 2012. Japan’s pork marketings during November equaled 151,917 MT, which was slightly higher than the previous month and was slightly higher than a year ago. Imported pork marketings totaled 71,024 MT, which was 4.8 percent more than a year ago. Domestic pork marketings totaled 80,893 MT, which was 3.0 percent lower than last year. At the end of November, Japan’s pork stocks equaled 152,988 MT, which was 5.3 percent lower than the previous month and was 13.5 percent lower than a year ago. Imported pork stocks totaled 131,976 MT, 15.5 percent less than a year ago. Domestic pork stocks were 1.1 percent more than a year ago, amounting to 21,012 MT. Additional data on Japan’s red meat trade can be found on the ALIC website at http://lin.alic.go.jp/alic/statis/dome/data2/e_nstatis.htm.

The Korea International Trade Association (KITA) recently published South Korea’s beef and pork import data for January 2014. According to the statistics, during January, South Korea imported 28,320 MT of beef, which was 32.8 percent more than the previous month but was 8.8 percent less than a year ago. More specifically, frozen beef imports equaled 24,309 MT, which comprised 85.8 percent of the total imports. Fresh, chilled beef imports equaled 4,011 MT. Beef imports from Australia rose 1.4 percent over the previous month to 14,153 MT. However, this was down 5.6 percent from a year ago. Australia was the main beef export market for South Korea with 50.0 percent of the total. During January, South Korea imported 12,012 MT of beef from the US, which was 122.3 percent greater than the previous month but was 6.1 percent less than a year ago. The US was the second largest beef import market for South Korea with 42.4 percent of the total. Beef imports from New Zealand during January totaled 1,903 MT, which was up 20.1 percent over the previous month but was down 34.7 percent from a year ago. In the meantime, during January, South Korea imported 27,781 MT of pork. Although this was 31.2 percent more than the previous month, it was 18.9 percent less than a year ago. Pork imports from the US during January equaled 11,071 MT, which was up 106.3 percent over the previous month but was down 28.0 percent from a year ago. The US was the leading pork import market for South Korea with 39.9 percent of the total. During January, South Korea imported 3,382 MT of pork from Germany. This was 29.1 percent more than the previous month and was 14.3 percent more than a year ago. South Korea’s pork imports from Chile during January rose 67.9 percent over the previous month to 2,493 MT. This was 26.7 percent lower than a year ago. To obtain additional data on South Korea’s red meat trade, visit the KITA website at http://www.kita.org/.

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