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USDA International Meat Review


06 December 2013

USDA International Meat Review - 5 December 2013USDA International Meat Review - 5 December 2013


USDA International Meat Review

North America

On December 2, the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) and the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) released the quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade. According to the publication, fiscal year (FY) 2014 U.S. agricultural exports are forecast at $137.0 billion. This was up from the previous estimate of $135.0 billion. However, this was down from $140.9 billion in 2013. Exports of livestock products during 2014 are forecast at $19.4 billion, up from the prior estimate of $19.0 billion. This is 2.8 percent higher than 2013. Beef and veal exports during 2014 are projected to total 800,000 MT, unchanged from the previous forecast. This is 4.2 percent less than 2013. The value of beef and veal exports is forecast at $5.0 billion, compared to $5.21 in 2013. During 2014, U.S. pork exports are expected to equal 1.8 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 1.7 MMT. This is 6.3 percent more than 2013. The value of pork exports is projected to total $5.5 billion, compared to $5.17 in 2013, due mostly to higher prices with strong demand expected from Mexico and some Asian markets. Beef and pork variety meat exports during 2014 are forecast at 700,000 MT, unchanged from the prior estimate. This is down 6.9 percent from 2013. The value of variety meat exports is forecast at $1.5 billion, compared to $1.5 billion in 2013. FY 2014 U.S. agricultural imports are forecast to value $109.5 billion. This is down from the prior estimate of $113.0 billion. However, this is up from $103.8 billion in 2013. The value of livestock and meat imports in 2014 is expected to total $10.7 billion, down from the previous estimate of $11.2 billion. However, this is 6.0 percent greater than 2013. Imports of cattle and calves in 2014 are forecast to total 2.0 million head. This is unchanged from the prior forecast but is down 1.6 percent from 2013. The value of imported cattle and calves is expected to be $1.9 billion in 2014. During 2014, beef and veal imports are projected to total 700,000 MT, down from the previous estimate of 900,000 MT. This is also down 4.5 percent from 2013. The value of beef and veal imports is predicted to equal $3.9 billion in 2014. Live swine imports during 2014 are forecast at 4.8 million head, which is down from the previous forecast of 5.2 million head. This is also 8.8 percent less than 2013. The value of imported live swine is expected to be $300 million in 2014. During 2014, pork imports are projected to total 400,000 MT, unchanged from the prior estimate but 7.8 percent higher than 2013. The value of pork imports is predicted to equal $1.5 billion in 2014. The entire report is available on the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov/.

On November 22, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its monthly Cattle on Feed report. According to the data, cattle and calves on feed for the U.S. slaughter market for feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head on November 1, 2013 equaled 10.61 million head. This was 5.7 percent less than one year ago and was 10.8 percent less than two years ago. During October, 2.39 million head of cattle were placed on feed, which was up 9.8 percent over one year ago but was down 3.9 percent from two years ago. Placements increased in each weight category over a year ago. More specifically, placements of feeder cattle weighing less than 600 pounds totaled 720,000 head, which was 5.9 percent more than last year. Placements weighing 600 to 699 pounds were up 15.6 percent over last year, amounting to 584,000 head. Feeder cattle placements weighing 700 to 799 pounds equaled 510,000 head, 17.2 percent higher than a year ago. Finally, placements of feeder cattle weighing more than 800 pounds totaled 580,000 head, which was 3.6 percent more than last year. In the meantime, during October, fed cattle marketings rose 1.0 percent over one year ago and 3.9 percent over two years ago to 1.86 million head. The entire report is available on the NASS website at http://www.nass.usda.gov/.

USDA FAS recently issued data for U.S. lamb, sheep and goat meat trade. The numbers include fresh, chilled and frozen product, as well as carcasses, cuts and bone-in and boneless product. According to the data, U.S. exports of lamb and sheep meat during the third quarter of 2013 equaled 497 MT. This was 42.5 percent less than the previous quarter and was 57.0 percent less than a year ago. During the third quarter, lamb and sheep meat exports to Mexico fell 34.7 percent from the previous quarter and 68.9 percent from a year ago to 286 MT. Year-to-date lamb and sheep meat exports to Mexico were 30.6 percent less than a year ago, amounting to 1,444 MT. Mexico was the main lamb and sheep meat export market for the U.S. with 61.8 percent of the total. Year-to-date lamb and sheep meat exports to Canada totaled 299 MT, 8.8 percent lower than a year ago. Overall, during the first three quarters of the year, U.S. lamb and sheep meat exports totaled 2,336 MT, 31.7 percent below the same period a year ago. Meanwhile, U.S. lamb and sheep meat imports during the third quarter of 2013 equaled 14,577 MT. This was down 18.2 percent from the previous quarter and was down 5.9 percent from a year ago. During the third quarter, lamb and sheep imports from Australia totaled 10,031 MT, which was 13.7 percent less than the previous quarter and was 11.6 percent less than a year ago. During the first three quarters of the year, U.S. lamb and sheep meat imports from Australia were 10.5 percent higher than last year, totaling 34,841 MT. Australia was the leading supplier of lamb and sheep meat to the U.S. with 66.9 percent of the total imports. During the third quarter, the U.S. imported 4,154 MT of lamb and sheep meat from New Zealand. This was down 31.9 percent from the previous quarter but was up 2.3 percent over a year ago. Total year-to-date lamb and sheep meat imports from New Zealand equaled 16,747 MT, 16.1 percent above last year. Overall, U.S. total lamb and sheep meat imports during the first three quarters of 2013 equaled 52,110 MT, which was 13.0 percent greater than the same period a year ago. In the meantime, U.S. goat meat imports during the third quarter totaled 3,706 MT. This was 12.0 percent lower than the previous quarter and was 25.5 percent lower than a year ago. During the third quarter, the U.S. imported 3,504 MT of goat meat from Australia. This was down 14.5 percent from the previous quarter and was down 26.0 percent from a year ago. Total year-to-date goat meat imports from Australia were 20.3 percent more than last year, amounting to 11,863 MT. Australia was the main source of U.S. goat meat imports with 97.1 percent of the total. Overall, U.S. total goat meat imports during the first three quarters of 2013 equaled 12,216 MT, which was 20.1 percent greater than the corresponding period a year ago. Additional data is available on the FAS website http://www.fas.usda.gov/gats/.

Oceania

Recently, the Australian Lot Feeders’ Association (ALFA) and Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) published the results of Australia’s third quarter cattle on feed survey. According to the data, as of September 30, 2013, Australia’s cattle on feed totaled 787,487 head. This was 9.8 percent lower than the previous quarter, driven by a rise in feeder cattle and grain prices. However, this was 9.8 percent higher than a year ago. Queensland had the majority of Australia’s cattle on feed with 504,078 head, or 64.0 percent. This was down 3.7 percent from the previous quarter. Queensland and New South Wales combined had 89.4 percent of Australia’s total cattle on feed, which amounted to 703,633 head. Australia’s feedlot capacity during the third quarter equaled 1,162,204 head. This was 2.5 percent lower than the previous quarter and was 9.2 percent lower than a year ago. The state of Queensland had the largest feedlot capacity with 589,227 head, which accounted for 50.7 percent of the total. Combined, Queensland and New South Wales had a feedlot capacity of 968,453 head, which comprised 83.3 percent of Australia’s total capacity. Australia’s capacity utilization was at 68 percent, compared to 73 percent the previous quarter and 56 percent a year ago. Australia’s cattle marketings during the third quarter rose 4.9 percent over the previous quarter to 707,831 head. Also, this was up 21.1 percent over a year ago. Through the third quarter, Australia’s cattle slaughter totaled 5.46 million head. This was up 11.9 percent over one year ago and was up 10.1 percent over two years ago. The complete report is available on the ALFA website at http://www.feedlots.com.au/.

Australia’s Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) recently published Australia’s red meat export data for November 2013. According to the numbers, Australia’s beef and veal exports during November fell 4.1 percent from the previous month to 99,802 MT. However, this was up 10.8 percent over November 2012. More specifically, exports of frozen beef equaled 77,233 MT, which accounted for 77.4 percent of the total. Exports of fresh, chilled beef equaled 22,569 MT. During November, Australia exported 25,005 MT of beef to Japan. Although this was 16.3 percent higher than the previous month, it was 10.2 percent lower than November 2012. Total year-to-date beef exports to Japan equaled 265,912 MT, which was 6.8 percent below a year ago. Japan was the primary beef export market for Australia with 26.5 percent of the total. Australia’s beef exports to the U.S. during November fell 17.8 percent from the previous month to 17,667 MT. However, this was 32.6 percent higher than November 2012. Year-to-date beef exports to the U.S. were 3.6 percent less than a year ago, totaling 194,998 MT. During November, Australia’s beef exports to China equaled 15,820 MT. Although this was down 5.3 percent from the previous month, it was up 98.9 percent over November 2012. Year-to-date beef exports to China totaled 140,729 MT, 457.9 percent greater than a year ago. Overall, Australia’s total year-to-date beef and veal exports equaled 1,003,134 MT, which was 14.3 percent above the corresponding period a year ago.

Australia’s lamb exports during November totaled 19,792 MT. This was 5.0 percent lower than October but was 5.7 percent higher than November 2012. During November, Australia exported 5,154 MT of lamb to the Middle East, which was up slightly over the previous month but was down 2.1 percent from November 2012. Total year-to-date lamb exports to the Middle East were 16.7 percent greater than last year, amounting to 54,949 MT. The Middle East was Australia’s largest lamb export market with 28.4 percent of the total. During November, Australia’s lamb exports to China totaled 3,976 MT. This was 1.3 percent lower than the previous month but was 20.4 percent higher than November 2012. Total year-to-date lamb exports to China equaled 35,905 MT, 34.8 percent greater than a year ago. Lamb exports to the U.S. during November fell 20.2 percent from the previous month and 1.0 percent from November 2012 to 3,358 MT. Year-to-date lamb exports to the U.S. totaled 35,529 MT, 5.5 percent higher than a year ago. Overall, Australia’s total year-to-date lamb exports reached 193,509 MT, 12.4 percent more than the same period a year ago. In the meantime, Australia’s mutton exports during November fell 4.6 percent from the previous month to 17,181 MT. However, this was up 24.2 percent over November 2012. During November, Australia exported a record 7,075 MT of mutton to China, which was up 1.6 percent over the previous month and was up 131.7 percent over November 2012. Year-to-date mutton exports to China totaled 50,449 MT, 323.3 percent above a year ago. China was Australia’s main mutton export market with 32.9 percent of the total. Australia’s mutton exports to the Middle East during November rose 14.1 percent over the previous month to 2,959 MT. However, this was down 46.6 percent from November 2012. Year-to-date mutton exports to the Middle East totaled 37,462 MT, which was 11.7 percent less than last year. Mutton exports to the U.S. during November equaled 557 MT, which was 21.8 percent lower than the previous month and was 3.0 percent lower than November 2012. Total year-to-date mutton exports to the U.S. equaled 8,133 MT, 17.5 percent greater than last year. Overall, Australia’s total year-to-date mutton exports equaled 153,490 MT, 64.9 percent above the corresponding period a year ago. Additional data on Australia’s exports is available on the DAFF website at http://www.daff.gov.au/.

Recently, the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) published South Korea’s beef and pork import numbers for October 2013. According to the data, during October, South Korea imported 27,795 MT of beef, which was 24.7 percent more than the previous month and was 12.5 percent more than October 2012. Specifically, imports of frozen beef totaled 24,267 MT, which comprised 87.3 percent of the total. Imports of fresh, chilled beef totaled 3,528 MT. South Korea’s beef imports from Australia during October rose 11.1 percent over September and 7.1 percent over October 2012 to 14,466 MT. Year-to-date beef imports from Australia totaled 120,022 MT, which was 8.2 percent above last year. Australia was the primary beef import market for South Korea with 53.9 percent of the total. During October, South Korea imported 10,806 MT of beef from the U.S. This was 47.4 percent more than the previous month and was 27.9 percent more than October 2012. Total year-to-date beef imports from the U.S. were 5.3 percent less than last year, amounting to 78,247 MT. Beef imports from New Zealand increased 33.2 percent over the previous month to 2,326 MT. However, this was down 7.6 percent from October 2012. Total year-to-date beef imports from New Zealand equaled 22,150 MT, 6.1 percent less than a year ago. Overall, South Korea’s total year-to-date beef imports equaled 222,736 MT, which was 1.0 percent higher than the corresponding period a year ago. In the meantime, South Korea’s pork imports during October totaled 22,889 MT. Although this was up 3.3 percent over the previous month, it was down 16.9 percent from October 2012. During October, South Korea imported 5,759 MT of pork from the U.S, which was a little higher than the previous month but was 27.3 percent lower than October 2012. Year-to-date pork imports from the U.S. were 16.1 percent less than a year ago, amounting to 89,794 MT. The U.S. was the main supplier of pork to South Korea with 35.7 percent of the total imports. Pork imports from Canada during October fell 1.7 percent from the previous month and 15.4 percent from October 2012 to 3,279 MT. Total year-to-date pork imports from Canada equaled 33,604 MT, which was 32.0 percent lower than last year. During October, South Korea imported 2,397 MT from Chile. This was down 18.3 percent from the previous month and was down 37.0 percent from October 2012. Year-to-date pork imports from Chile totaled 27,070 MT, which was 16.2 percent less than last year. Total year-to-date pork imports from Germany were 11.9 percent lower than a year ago, amounting to 27,461 MT. Overall, South Korea’s total year-to-date pork imports equaled 251,354 MT, 24.1 percent below the same period a year ago. Additional data on South Korea’s red meat trade can be found on the KITA website at http://www.kita.org/.

South America

Argentina’s National Service of Health, Food and Agriculture Quality (SENASA) recently published Argentina’s third quarter beef export numbers. The numbers include fresh beef, offals, processed beef and Hilton cuts. According to the data, during the third quarter of 2013, Argentina’s beef exports totaled 64,174 MT. This was 12.3 percent higher than the previous quarter and was 28.1 percent higher than a year ago. During the second quarter, beef exports to Russia rose 15.6 percent over the previous quarter to 12,877 MT. Additionally, this was 16.2 percent more than a year ago. During the first three quarters of the year, Argentina’s beef exports to Russia equaled 37,281 MT, which was up 9.1 percent over last year. Russia was the largest beef export market for Argentina with 20.4 percent of the total. Argentina’s beef exports to Hong Kong during the third quarter equaled 9,278 MT. This was down 5.0 percent from the previous quarter but was up 43.8 percent over a year ago. Year-to-date beef exports to Hong Kong totaled 29,088 MT, which was 31.4 percent above a year ago. During the third quarter, Argentina exported 8,941 MT of beef to Chile, which was up 31.7 percent over the previous quarter and was up 38.3 percent over a year ago. Total year-to-date beef exports to Chile were 21.0 percent more than a year ago, amounting to 22,909 MT. Total year-to-date beef exports to the U.S. were 69.8 percent greater than a year ago, amounting to 657 MT. During the first three quarters of 2013, Argentina’s main beef export market for Hilton cuts was Germany with 57.0 percent of the total. The primary fresh beef export market was Chile with 28.0 percent. The largest processed beef export market, with 18.7 percent of the total, was Italy. The main offal market was Hong Kong with 34.5 percent of the total exports. Of Argentina’s total beef exports during the first three quarters of 2013, 44.6 percent was fresh beef, 43.6 percent consisted of offals, 9.6 percent was Hilton cuts, and 2.1 percent comprised processed beef. Overall, Argentina’s total beef exports during the first three quarters of 2013 equaled 182,580 MT, which was 13.4 percent more than the same period a year ago. According to MLA, Argentina’s cattle slaughter during the first eight months of the year totaled 8.4 million head, which was up 13 percent over a year ago.

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