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USDA International Meat Review


20 June 2013

USDA International Meat Review - 20 June 2013USDA International Meat Review - 20 June 2013


USDA International Meat Review

Trade Highlights

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations recently issued its bi-annual Food Outlook report. According to the FAO, during 2013, world meat production is forecast to increase 1.4 percent over 2012 to 308.2 MMT. In many countries, producers continue to struggle with high feed prices; however, they began to fall during the second half of 2012. World beef production is predicted to total 68.1 MMT, which is nearly 1.0 percent higher than 2012. The increase is being led by developing countries, while climate elements have restrained beef production in many developed countries. In South America, cattle availabilities and slaughter have been rising. In Brazil, the world’s second largest beef producing nation, production is expected to climb with good pasture conditions and strong international demand. India is also expected to see an increase in beef production. Beef production in the U.S. is expected to fall due to declining cattle slaughter because of drought induced herd reduction. In Australia and New Zealand, production is projected to increase as dry conditions in recent months and high feed costs in 2012 are expected to increase slaughter rates. During 2013, world pork production is forecast to total a record 114.2 MMT, 1.5 percent more than 2012. Strong consumer demand and government support policies are expected to result in China’s increase in pork production to almost half of the world’s total. Recovery from foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) should lead to an increase in production in South Korea. Brazil is anticipating higher pork production due to increasing prices. Pork production in the EU is expected to decrease for the second year because of animal welfare requirements. In the U.S., lower feed costs and increased slaughter could lead to limited growth. World sheep and goat meat production during 2013 is predicted to increase 1.1 percent over 2012 to 13.8 MMT. Growth is expected from Australia and New Zealand. Meat trade is expected to grow more slowly in 2013 than in recent years due to adequate supplies in many importing countries and a reduction in production in some of the major exporting countries. During 2013, world meat exports are expected to increase 1.1 percent over 2012 to 30.2 MMT. World beef exports during 2013 are forecast at 8.6 MMT, 4.6 percent greater than 2012. Exports of beef from India are expected to grow by as much as 15.0 percent as India exports to several countries. This would put India’s exports above the U.S. and Australia. Shipments of beef are also anticipated to increase out of Brazil and Australia. Limited domestic supplies will hamper U.S. beef exports. New Zealand, Uruguay and Mexico are expected to see an increase in exports during 2013. World pork exports are expected to fall 4.1 percent from 2012 to 7.2 MMT because of reduced production in some of the major exporting countries and decreased demand by several major importing countries. Reduced availability in the U.S., the EU and Canada is expected to constrain exports. Brazil is facing restrictions on pork trade in some markets. Exports by non-traditional exporters, such as Chile and Mexico, are expected to rise. During 2013, world sheep exports are forecast to rise 5.8 percent over 2012 to 870,000 MT. Australia is expected to see the largest growth in exports, although New Zealand’s exports are anticipated to be strong. World meat imports during 2013 are forecast at 29.6 MMT, 1.6 percent more than 2012. World beef imports during 2013 are expected to increase 4.5 percent over 2012 to 8.3 MMT. Large increases in imports are expected by the U.S., the world’s largest beef importer and, to a lesser extend for Canada, to compensate for domestic shortages. Demand from China is also anticipated to remain firm. Imports by Japan are expected to increase moderately, while imports by South Korea are expected to remain weak. World pork imports are forecast at 7.1 MMT, 2.0 percent lower than 2012. Japan, the largest importer, is anticipated to cut imports, reflecting expanding production and strong competition from poultry and beef. China’s pork imports are expected to remain stable, following notable growth in recent years. Pork imports by the U.S. are anticipated to remain about the same as 2012. During 2013, world sheep imports are expected to reach 850,000 MT, which is 6.4 percent greater than 2012. Most of the increase will come from China. The complete food outlook report can be found on the FAO website at http://www.fao.org/WAICENT/faoinfo/economic/giews/english/fo/index.htm.

North America

CanFax recently published Canada’s current cattle on feed numbers for terminal feedlots with 1,000 head or more in the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. According to the statistics, Canada’s total cattle on feed on June 1, 2013 equaled 817,333 head. This was 3.3 percent less than one year ago and was 7.7 percent less than the five year average. Cattle placed on feed during May totaled 116,816 head. This was 13.6 percent more than one year ago but was slightly less than the five year average. The number of steers placed on feed totaled 65,852 head, which accounted for 56.4 percent of the total. Heifers placed on feed totaled 50,964 head. Specifically, placements of feeder cattle weighing less than 600 pounds totaled 8,209 head, which was 167.9 percent greater than a year ago. Placements of feeder cattle weighing 600 to 699 pounds were up 95.5 percent over a year ago, amounting to 12,092 head. Placements weighing 700 to 799 pounds equaled 21,518 head, 94.0 percent above a year ago. Finally, placements weighing more than 800 pounds totaled 74,997 head, 9.1 percent less than last year. Meanwhile, during May, Canada’s fed cattle marketings fell 10.7 percent from one year ago to 135,171 head. Also, this was 14.7 percent less than the five year average and was the lowest since reporting began in 2000. To view the complete report, go to the CanFax website at http://www.canfax.ca/.

Recently, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), a division of the Department of Homeland Security, released the most current data on U.S. beef imports under a tariff rate quota (TRQ). According to the numbers, as of June 17, 2013, U.S. beef imports subject to a TRQ equaled 334,619 MT, which was 1.7 percent less than the same period a year ago. Imports of beef from New Zealand equaled 101,038 MT. This was 26.7 percent greater than year ago and filled 47.3 percent of the TRQ, up from 37.4 percent last year. Beef imports from Australia were 14.4 percent less than last year, amounting to 82,503 MT. This filled 21.8 percent of Australia’s TRQ, compared to 25.5 percent a year ago. Imports of beef from Canada, which do not fall under a TRQ, totaled 78,598 MT. This was 19.6 percent lower than a year ago. Beef imports from Mexico, which also are not under a TRQ, were 18.9 percent greater than last year, amounting to 41,202 MT. Beef imports from Uruguay through June 17 were 38.3 percent higher than a year ago, totaling 11,040 MT. This filled 55.2 percent of the country’s TRQ, up from 39.9 percent from last year. Imports of beef from Argentina continue to be banned due to (FMD). The weekly report is available on the CBP website at http://www.cbp.gov/xp/cgov/trade/trade_programs/textiles_and_quotas/commodity/

According to data from the USDA Livestock Poultry and Grain Market News (LPGMN), through June 1, 2013, the U.S. imported 457,004 head of feeder cattle from Mexico. This was 42.2 percent less than one year ago and was 28.3 percent less than two years ago. Cattle imports from Mexico have trended higher the last four years, mostly due to drought, pasture conditions and higher feeder cattle prices in the U.S. Imports are expected to tighten further in 2013 as Mexico’s herd continues to shrink. During the same time frame, feeder cattle imports from Canada totaled 147,881 head, which was 65.1 percent greater than a year ago. Imports of slaughter steers and heifers from Canada were up 6.8 percent over last year, amounting to 193,783 head. Imports of slaughter cows and bulls totaled 158,212 head, 102.8 percent greater than a year ago. The sharp increases can be attributed to the smaller calf crop in the U.S. and the diminishing feed cost advantage in Canada. U.S. feeder pig imports from Canada through June 1 were down 10.5 percent from a year ago, totaling 1,808,607 head. Total slaughter hog imports from Canada equaled 360,137 head, which was little changed from a year ago. To obtain the weekly reports, visit the LPGMN website at http://www.ams.usda.gov/lpsmarketnewspage.

Pacific Rim

Recently, the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) published South Korea’s beef and pork import numbers for May 2013. According to the data, during May, South Korea’s beef imports fell 1.0 percent from April and 1.9 percent from May 2012 to 20,301 MT. Specifically, imports of frozen product equaled 16,821 MT, which comprised 82.9 percent of the total. Fresh, chilled product equaled 3,480 MT. South Korea’s beef imports from Australia during May totaled 11,338 MT. Although this was down 4.9 percent from the previous month, it was up 1.9 percent over May 2012. Year-to-date beef imports from Australia totaled 57,861 MT, 8.9 percent more than last year. Australia was the leading beef import market for South Korea with 53.1 percent of the total. During May, South Korea imported 6,576 MT of beef from the U.S., which was 10.3 percent higher than the previous month and was 1.0 percent higher than May 2012. Total year-to-date beef imports from the U.S. were down 6.3 percent from a year ago, amounting to 37,720 MT. During May, beef imports from New Zealand fell 10.4 percent from the previous month and 12.5 percent from May 2012 to 2,175 MT. Year-to-date beef imports from New Zealand were 3.6 percent more than last year, totaling 12,178 MT. Overall, South Korea’s total year-to-date beef imports equaled 108,947 MT, 1.6 percent greater than the same period a year ago. In the meantime, during May, South Korea imported 24,970 MT of pork. This was down 6.2 percent from the previous month and was down 23.9 percent from May 2012. During May, pork imports from the U.S. rose 1.1 percent over the previous month but fell 20.8 percent from May 2012 to 8,933 MT. Total year-to-date pork imports from the U.S. equaled 52,854 MT, 13.9 percent less than a year ago. The U.S. was the primary supplier of pork to South Korea with 39.0 percent of the total imports. South Korea’s pork imports from Canada during May totaled 3,706 MT. This was 5.0 percent less than the previous month and was 25.7 percent less than May 2012. Year-to-date pork imports from Canada were 33.3 percent less than last year, amounting to 18,362 MT. During May, South Korea imported 2,504 MT of pork from Chile, which was 29.5 percent lower than April and was 27.3 percent lower than May 2012. Year-to-date pork imports from Chile totaled 14,473 MT, 10.1 percent less than a year ago. Overall, South Korea’s total year-to-date pork imports equaled 135,450 MT, which was 28.5 percent below the corresponding period a year ago. To obtain further data on South Korea’s trade, go to the KITA website at http://www.kita.org/.

June 2013

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