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Australian Farm Output Forecast Down for Next Year

16 December 2014

AUSTRALIA - The gross value of Australian farm production is forecast to fall by five per cent in 2014-15, according to the latest forecast from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Science (ABARES).

This follows a year in which output rose by 10 per cent.

ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key Agricultural Commodities in 2014-15, updated with revised forecasts from the previous edition in September 2014 shows that the gross value of farm production is forecast to fall by five per cent in 2014-15 to about A$50.7 billion, following an estimated increase of 10 per cent to A$53.4 billion in 2013-14.

The volume index of farm production is forecast to decrease by 5.9 per cent in 2014-15, following an estimated rise of 5.5 per cent in 2013-14.

Earnings from farm exports are forecast to fall by 8.6 per cent in 2014-15 to around A$37.6 billion. At this forecast level, export earnings in 2014-15 would be around four per cent above the average of A$36.2 billion over the past decade to 2013-14 in real terms.

The forecast fall in farm export earnings largely reflects expected falls in earnings from cotton (down 37 per cent), barley (36 per cent), canola (44 per cent), wheat (10 per cent) and dairy (20 per cent).

Export earnings are forecast to increase for beef and veal (up 6.0 per cent), lamb (12 per cent), sugar (7.0 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (5.0 per cent) and live sheep (62 per cent).

Earnings from crop exports are forecast to fall by 15.2 per cent to A$19.3 billion in 2014-15, following a decline of 1.4 per cent in the previous year.

Export earnings from livestock and livestock products are forecast to fall slightly to A$18.3 billion in 2014-15, following an increase of 22.6 per cent in the previous year.

Export earnings from fisheries products are forecast to increase by 3.3 per cent in 2014-15 to around A$1.3 billion, following an increase of 11 per cent in 2013-14.

The index of unit export returns for Australian farm exports is forecast to decline by 1.8 per cent in 2014-15, following a rise of 7.4 per cent in 2013-14.

Higher export prices are forecast for beef, sheep meat and wine in 2014-15, while export prices of wheat, barley, cotton and dairy products are forecast to decline.

Further Reading

You can view the full report by clicking here.

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