CHINA - Looking at the size of the breakdown of the inventory for September, 2013-breeding stock was around 50.68 million sows and total on farm inventory was around 455.10 million (as compared to August 2013-breeding stock was around 50.73 million and total on farm inventory was around 451.94 million, writes Ron Lane, Senior Consultant for Genesus China.
The 455.10 million head for September is down 0.2 % from last year while the September sow inventory of 50.68 million is down 1.0 % from last year (year over year).
Profit margins are now showing positive returns. Recently, it was reported that profits for a farrow to finish operation was in the range from 73 RMB to 126 RMB/market pig ($ 11.98 USD to $20.68 USD/market pig).
At the end of April, the estimated national losses were around 139 RMB/market pig ($ 22.81 USD/market pig) (as compared to the end of March when losses were 260 RMB/head ($ 42.68 USD/head).
Average profit for 2012 was estimated at 177 RMB/ pig-$ 29.06 USD/market pig.
What to watch for over the next few months
At the end of October, the pig to grain price ratio was 6.59:1. This compares to the end of September pig to grain price ratio of 6.53:1; June monthly average of 5.76:1 and to the May monthly average of 5.28:1.
(Other dates for comparison were: for April 10th, 2013 - 5.24:1 and with 3 March - 5.97:1 as compared to 13 January, when the ratio was at 7.52:1).
Only in the past few months has the ratio of 6.00:1 considered breakeven been surpassed.
On 29 October, the average national corn price was 2.27 RMB/kg or $0.37 US/kg or 0.17US/lb. and the average national wheat bran price was 1.99RMB/kg or $0.33 US/kg or $0.15US/lb.
The retail price to farmers for soybean meal would be 4.58 RMB/kg or $0.75 US/kg or $0.34US/lb.
The national average feed price for a market pig was 3.22 RMB/kg ($ 0.53US/kg or $ 0.24 US/lb.).
China’s corn production for this year will be about 210 million tonnes (China is number 2 in the world corn production behind the USA).
However, again, China will have to increase their imports for this crop year. In the 2012/13 crop year, China imported about 3 million tonnes of corn.
The Rabobank suggests that China will need 7 to 8 million tonnes this year. Already, China has agreed to import corn from Brazil. Argentina shipped corn to China in August.
|Genesus Global Market Report|
Prices for the week of November 11, 2013
(Liveweight a lb)
|USA (Iowa-Minnesota)||79.53 USD/lb carcass||58.85¢|
|Canada (Ontario)||160.97 CAD/kg carcass||55.94¢|
|Mexico (DF)||23.4 MXN/kg liveweight||82.02¢|
|Brazil (South Region)||3.76 BRL/kg liveweight||75.14¢|
|Russia||77 RUB/kg liveweight||$1.06|
|China||15.97 RMB/kg liveweight||$1.19|
|Spain||1.29 EUR/kg liveweight||79.23¢|
|Viet Nam||43,000 VND/kg liveweight||92.48¢|
|South Korea||4,213 KRW/kg liveweight||$1.81|
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