Russian Broiler Production to Grow in 201422 August 2013
RUSSIA - The USDA's Foreign Agricultual Service in Moscow has forecast that Russian broiler production will reach 3.3 million tonnes in 2014 (3.4 per cent more than the 2013 estimate).
The new State Programme for the Development of Poultry Production from 2013-2015 (hereinafter, the 2013-2015 Poultry Programme) conservatively envisages poultry production to grow to 4.0 million tonnes in 2015, compared to 3.55 million tonnes in 2012, and should help further boost Russian broiler production next year.
In addition to forecasting an increase in domestic production in 2014, thanks to industry support measures by the Russian government this year, including grain intervention sales and compensation for high feed costs, as well as an increase in domestic grain production in 2013, the USDA has also predicted a rise in Russian broiler production by three per cent to 3.05 million tonnes for 2013.
Because of the forecasted increase in competitively priced domestic production, broiler imports are forecast to decrease slightly in 2014 (to 530,000 tonnes). Moreover, trade statistics show that Russian broiler imports were down nearly six per cent (to 191,255 tonnes) during the first five months of 2013, when compared to the same period last year. This reduction in trade, coupled with the USDA’s expectation that Russian broiler production will grow at a faster pace in the second half of 2013, has led the USDA in Moscow to reduce its 2013 import estimate by nearly seven per cent (to 540,000 tonnes).
The Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus Customs Union (CU) continues to promote intra-CU, duty-free agricultural trade. FAS/Moscow forecasts Russia’s broiler exports in 2014 to increase by eight per cent (to 65,000 tonnes) over revised 2013 levels as a result of increased domestic production at a lower cost of production, and favorable trade conditions between the two CU Member States. USDA’s 2013 export forecast has been reduced by nearly 30 per cent (to 60,000 tonnes) because of several factors. First, Customs Union trade statistics show a significant decrease in year-on-year trade. While traders believe this data is underreported, they also expect Russian broiler exports to be lower than early 2013 projections. In addition, Kazakhstan has reportedly strengthened its own domestic broiler production, and increased control over imported products.
With the timely release of financial support earmarked in the 2013-2015 Poultry Programme, USDA in Moscow forecasts a five per cent increase in turkey meat production in 2014 (to 105,000 tonnes). Additionally, given the increase in domestic turkey meat production, it is forecasted that imports will remain flat in 2014 (i.e., equivalent to Russia’s tariff rate quota volume for turkey meat). The USDA in Moscow’s turkey production estimate for 2013 has been decreased by nearly five per cent (to 100,000 tonnes) as previously approved government support programme earmarked for 2013 were not accomplished during the first half of the year due to a lack of financing. Imports of turkey meat during the first five months of 2013 decreased by 33 per cent (to 4,485 tonnes) when compared to the same period in 2012. Given this considerable decrease in trade, the USDA in Moscow has significantly lowered its import estimate for 2013 (to 14,000 tonnes).
You can view the USDA GAIN: Russian Federation Poultry and Products Annual 2013 by clicking here.
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