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International Meat Review - 10 June 2010

24 June 2010

USDA

US exports of agricultural products for the first quarter of the year estimated to value $104.5 billion, up from the previous forecast of $100.0 billion, according to the International Meat Review.

North America

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) recently issued data for US lamb, sheep and goat meat trade.

According to the numbers, which include fresh, chilled and frozen product, as well as carcasses, cuts and bone-in and boneless product, during the first quarter of 2010, the US exported 2,492 tonnes of lamb and sheep meat. This was 60.7 per cent more than a year ago. Lamb and sheep meat exports to Mexico during the first quarter were 116.4 per cent greater than last year, amounting to 1,290 tonnes.

Mexico was the main destination for US lamb and sheep meat with 51.8 per cent of the total exports. During the first quarter, the US exported 298 tonnes of lamb and sheep meat to the Netherland, which was 75.0 per cent greater than a year ago. The Netherlands accounted for 12.0 per cent of the total US lamb and sheep meat export market. Lamb and sheep meat exports to the Bahamas were 133.2 per cent greater than a year ago, amounting to 170 tonnes. During the first quarter of 2010, the US imported 19,697 tonnes of lamb and sheep meat. This was 4.9 per cent less than a year ago.

Lamb and sheep meat imports from Australia during the first quarter totaled 12,107 tonnes, which was 19.4 per cent below last year. Nonetheless, Australia was the main supplier of lamb and sheep meat to the US with 61.5 per cent of the total imports. During the first quarter, lamb and sheep meat imports from New Zealand rose 33.8 per cent over last year to 7,574 tonnes.

Imports from New Zealand accounted for 38.5 per cent of the total. Additionally, during the first quarter of 2010, US goat meat imports increased 53.7 per cent over a year ago to 3,866 tonnes. US first quarter goat meat imports from Australia equaled 3,823 tonnes. This was 55.1 per cent above a year ago. Australia was the largest market for US goat meat imports with 98.9 per cent of the total. Additional US trade data can be found on the FAS website http://www.fas.usda.gov/gats/.

On May 27, the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) and USDA FAS released the quarterly Outlook for US Agricultural Trade. According to the report, during the fiscal year (FY) 2010, US exports of agricultural products are estimated to value $104.5 billion, up from the previous forecast of $100.0 billion.

Also, this is up 8.2 per cent over 2009. Exports of livestock products during 2010 are expected to total $13.0 billion, down from the prior forecast of $13.1 billion. Beef and veal exports during 2010 are forecast at 700,000 tonnes, unchanged from the previous estimate. The value of beef and veal exports is predicted to total $3.0 billion, unchanged from the prior forecast. During 2010, US pork exports are estimated at 1.5 million tonnes, the same are the previous forecast.

The value of pork exports was forecast at $4.1 billion, down from the prior expectation of $4.2 billion due to tight domestic supplies. Beef and pork variety meat exports during 2010 are expected to total 700,000 tonnes, down from the previous forecast of 900,000 tonnes. The value of variety meat exports is also expected to decline to $1.1 billion.

In the meantime, during FY 2010, US agricultural imports are estimated to value $76.5 billion, which is down from the previous estimate of $77.5 billion. However, this is up 4.2 per cent over 2009. During 2010, the value of livestock, dairy and poultry imports is forecast at $10.6 billion, which is down from the previous estimate of $11.3 billion. Imports of livestock and meats during 2010 are expected to equal $7.6 billion, down from the prior forecast of $8.0 billion. Imports of cattle and calves during 2010 are predicted to total 2.1 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous forecast.

The value of those imports is placed at $1.4 billion, down from $1.5 billion. Imports of live hogs are expected to total 5.9 million head, up from the prior prediction of 5.7 million head. The value of live hog imports during 2010 is forecast at $300,000, unchanged from the previous forecast. Beef and veal imports are estimated to total 800,000 tonnes, down from the prior estimate of 900,000 tonnes. The value is pegged at $2.7 billion, down from $3.0 billion as global supplies have tightened. During 2010, pork imports are forecast at 400,000 tonnes with a value of $1.0 billion, unchanged from the previous estimates. The entire report, which includes a world economic outlook and regional information, is available on the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov/.

Pacific Rim

Recently, Japan’s Ministry of Finance published March 2010 beef and pork import numbers for Japan, as reported by the Agriculture and Livestock Industries Corporation (ALIC).

According to the data, Japan’s beef imports during March rose 29.3 per cent over the previous month and 21.6 per cent over March 2009 to 42,813 tonnes. Specifically, imports of frozen beef equaled 23,344 tonnes, which was up 20.2 per cent over the previous month and was up 32.6 per cent over March 2009. Imports of fresh, chilled beef equaled 19,436 tonnes, which was up 42.1 per cent over the previous month and was up 10.5 per cent over March 2009. Japan’s beef imports from Australia during March totaled 32,886 tonnes.

This was 37.4 per cent higher than the previous month and was 16.6 per cent higher than March 2009. During the first quarter of 2010, Japan’s beef imports from Australia totaled 79,153 tonnes, 10.0 per cent less than a year ago. Nonetheless, Australia was the largest supplier of beef to Japan with 75.7 per cent of the total imports. During March, Japan imported 5,551 tonnes of beef from the US This was 2.8 per cent higher than the previous month and was 56.2 per cent higher than March 2009. Year-to-date beef imports from the US reached 14,867 tonnes, which was 45.2 per cent greater than last year.

Beef imports from New Zealand during March rose 29.2 per cent over February to 2,933 tonnes. Also, this was 3.0 per cent higher than March 2009.

Total year-to-date beef imports from New Zealand were 28.1 per cent lower than a year ago, amounting to 6,710 tonnes. Overall, during the first quarter of 2010, Japan’s beef imports totaled 104,572 tonnes, which was 5.6 per cent less than the same period a year ago.

Japan’s beef marketings during March equaled 76,275 tonnes. This was 17.7 per cent higher than the previous month and was 13.8 per cent higher than a year ago. Imported beef marketings totaled 45,737 tonnes, 21.4 per cent more than last year. Domestic beef marketings were up 4.0 per cent over last year, amounting to 30,538 tonnes. Japan’s beef stocks at the end of March equaled 69,071 tonnes, 5.1 per cent lower than the previous month and 12.8 per cent lower than a year ago. Stocks of imported beef were 13.7 per cent less than last year, amounting to 57,429 tonnes. Stocks of domestic beef were 8.3 per cent lower than a year ago, totaling 11,642 tonnes.

Japan’s pork imports during March rose 22.1 per cent over the previous month to 63,533 tonnes. However, this was 1.4 per cent lower than March 2009. More specifically, imports of frozen pork totaled 43,554 tonnes, which was up 29.6 per cent over the previous month and was up 3.2 per cent over March 2009.

Imports of fresh, chilled pork totaled 19,941 tonnes, which was up 8.3 per cent over the previous month but was down 10.1 per cent from March 2009. During March, Japan’s pork imports from the US equaled 26,100 tonnes. This was 27.7 per cent higher than the previous month but was 8.6 per cent lower than March 2009. During the first quarter, Japan’s pork imports from the US equaled 67,073 tonnes, 16.5 per cent less than a year ago.

The US was the primary supplier of pork to Japan with 39.0 per cent of the total imports. Japan’s pork imports from Canada during March totaled 15,304 tonnes. Although this was down 4.1 per cent from the previous month, it was up 1.5 per cent over March 2009. During the first quarter, Japan imported 44,993 tonnes of pork from Canada, which was 4.6 per cent more than last year. Japan’s pork imports from Denmark during March equaled 11,580 tonnes.

This was 82.0 per cent higher than the previous month and was 24.5 per cent higher than March 2009. Year-to-date pork imports from Denmark totaled 30,010 tonnes, which was 20.1 per cent greater than last year. Overall, Japan’s total pork imports during the first quarter of 2010 equaled 172,047 tonnes, 5.8 per cent lower than the same period a year ago. During March, Japan’s pork marketings were up 10.2 per cent over the previous month and 2.6 per cent over March 2009, totaling 141,161 tonnes. Marketings of imported pork totaled 61,841 tonnes, 3.5 per cent higher than a year ago.

Domestic pork stocks were 1.9 per cent higher than last year, amounting to 79,320 tonnes. At the end of March, Japan’s pork stocks equaled 171,779 tonnes. This was 2.2 per cent higher than the previous month but was 11.5 per cent lower than March 2009. Stocks of imported pork were 14.7 per cent lower than a year ago, amounting to 141,857 tonnes. Stocks of domestic pork equaled 29,922 tonnes, 7.4 per cent higher than last year.

Oceania

Australia’s Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) recently released May 2010 red meat export data for Australia. According to the statistics, during May, Australia’s beef and veal exports totaled 85,762 tonnes. This was 14.7 per cent greater than the previous month and was 3.5 per cent greater than May 2009. Also, this was the highest single month total since March 2009.

More specifically, frozen beef exports totaled 64,236 tonnes, which comprised 74.9 per cent of the total. Fresh, chilled beef exports totaled 21,525 tonnes. During May, Australia exported 30,755 tonnes of beef to Japan. Although this was 3.1 per cent higher than April, it was 9.5 per cent lower than May 2009.

Year-to-date beef exports to Japan were 1.5 per cent lower than a year ago, amounting to 144,340 tonnes. Japan was Australia’s main beef export market with 41.4 per cent of the total. Australia’s beef exports to the US during May rose 43.8 per cent over the previous month to 23,870 tonnes.

This was slightly more than May 2009 and was the highest monthly total since March 2009. Year-to-date beef exports to the US totaled 81,329 tonnes, 34.9 per cent below a year ago. Australia’s beef exports to South Korea during May equaled 10,831 tonnes, which was up a little over the previous month and was up 36.2 per cent over May 2009. Total year-todate beef exports to South Korea were 17.5 per cent greater than last year, amounting to 46,177 tonnes. Overall, Australia’s total year-to-date beef and veal exports equaled 348,882 tonnes, which was down 8.7 per cent from the corresponding period a year ago.

Australia’s lamb exports during May rose 19.6 per cent over April and 4.6 per cent over May 2009 to 14,861 tonnes, supported by a lower valued Australian dollar. During May, Australia exported 4,012 tonnes of lamb to the US This was 35.7 per cent higher than the previous month and was 22.8 per cent higher than May 2009.

Total year-to-date lamb exports to the US were 9.9 per cent less than a year ago, amounting to 15,567 tonnes. The US was the largest lamb export market for Australia with 26.0 per cent of the total. Australia’s lamb exports to the Middle East during May rose 3.5 per cent over the previous month to 2,841 tonnes. However, this was down 16.4 per cent from May 2009. Year-to-date lamb exports to the Middle East totaled 11,642 tonnes, 16.6 per cent below a year ago. Overall, Australia’s total year-to-date lamb exports equaled 59,980 tonnes, which was 13.5 per cent less than the same period a year ago due to tight supplies and unfavorable trading conditions. Meanwhile, Australia’s mutton exports during May fell 13.3 per cent from the previous month to 6,623 tonnes. Also, this was down 43.2 per cent from May 2009. During May, Australia’s mutton exports to the Middle East totaled 2,951 tonnes.

This was down 12.4 per cent from the previous month and was down 47.9 per cent from May 2009. Additionally, this was the lowest monthly volume since July 2009. Year-to-date mutton exports to the Middle East were 15.5 per cent below a year ago, totaling 20,186 tonnes. The Middle East was the main buyer of Australia’s mutton with 45.0 per cent of the total exports. Australia’s mutton exports to Malaysia during May equaled 468 tonnes. Although this was 39.5 per cent lower than the previous month, it was 307.0 per cent higher than May 2009.

Year-to-date mutton exports to Malaysia totaled 3,842 tonnes, 4.7 per cent less than last year. During May, Australia exported 194 tonnes of mutton to the US This was down 26.0 per cent from the previous month and was down 77.4 per cent from May 2009.

Also, this was the lowest single month volume since August 2008. Year-to-date mutton exports to the US were 44.8 per cent lower than last year, amounting to 2,750 tonnes. Overall, Australia’s total year-to-date mutton exports equaled 44,896 tonnes, which was 30.2 per cent below the corresponding period a year ago. To obtain additional data on Australia’s exports, visit the DAFF website at http://www.daff.gov.au/.

Trade Highlights

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations recently issued its bi-annual Food Outlook report. According to the FAO, prices in the meat sector have been on the rise because of declining production as word demand rebounds. During 2010, world meat production is forecast to increase 1.8 per cent over 2009 to 286.4 million tonnes.

The increase is due partly to expansion in pork production. However, cattle and sheep herd rebuilding will limit growth. World beef production is predicted to total 64.9 million tonnes, which is a little higher than 2009. Despite the improved global economic situation, growth in world beef production is expected to be limited by high feed prices. US beef production in 2010 is predicted to decline due to herd rebuilding. Beef production in Brazil and Uruguay is expected to increase due to higher slaughter rates, while production in Argentina is expected to remain steady.

Herd rebuilding is taking place in Australia and New Zealand, which will limit beef production in both countries during 2010. World pork production during 2010 is forecast to reach 108.1 million tonnes, which is 2.0 per cent more than 2009 due to a stable animal health situation. In China, pork production is expected to increase by about three per cent.

Pork production in the EU is predicted to recover by two per cent, while pork production in the US is expected to decline by three per cent.

In 2010, world sheep and goat meat production is predicted to increase slightly over 2009 to 13.1 million tonnes. Dry weather conditions in recent years in Australia and New Zealand reduced supplies; however, better weather conditions, as well as strong prices, will encourage farmers to rebuild their herds.

World meat trade during 2010 is forecast at 25.4 million tonnes, which is up a little over 2009. Overall trade will remain relatively stable, although pork exports may recover slightly. Low beef and sheep meat supplies will cap trade growth. World beef exports are expected to total 7.3 million tonnes, nearly unchanged from 2009 as increases from Brazil and the US are offset by decreases from Argentina, Australia and New Zealand. In Brazil, sufficient cattle numbers will boost beef exports.

In the US, traders are encouraged by higher world beef prices and are expected to increase exports in response. Supply constraints in Argentina, Australia and New Zealand will limit export growth. During 2010, beef imports are expected to increase in the US due to reduced domestic supply and improving demand.

Mexico’s beef imports are also predicted to increase. Beef prices during the first quarter of 2010 were nearly 14 per cent higher than the same period a year ago. World pork trade during 2010 is forecast at 5.9 million tonnes, up 3.3 per cent over 2009. Pork exports from the US are expected to increase with strong demand from Mexico.

Pork exports from the EU are also predicted to grow. Brazil’s pork exports during 2010 are anticipated to expand nearly 12 per cent. World pork imports are expected to increase, driven by greater demand from Hong Kong and Mexico. Japan’s pork imports are predicted to increase slightly.

World pork prices during the first quarter of 2010 were three per cent higher than a year ago. During 2010, world trade of sheep and goat meat is expected to total 830,000 tonnes, relatively unchanged from 2009. Sheep meat prices remain good, particularly prices of high quality lamb meat. World per capita meat consumption during 2010 is forecast at 41.9 kilograms per year. This is up from 41.6 kilograms in 2009. The complete food outlook report can be found on the FAO website at http://www.fao.org/WAICENT/faoinfo/economic/giews/english/fo/index.htm.

Further Reading

- You can view the full report by clicking here.

June 2010

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