GLOBAL POULTRY TRENDS 2014: Population Growth to Slow in Asia23 May 2015
The human population is projected to continue to grow in Asia in the coming years, according to industry analyst, Terry Evans, as will its egg output, and the egg processing sector is thriving in some Asian countries.
Population growth in Asia between 2000 and 20125 (2015) was just over one per cent per year.
Between now and 2030, it will slow to 0.7 per cent while from 2030 to 2050, it will average 0.3 per cent per year.
As this will not match the global rate, Asia’s population as a proportion of the world total will decline from a little under 60 per cent in 2015 to 54 per cent in 2050. In actual numbers, the Asian total will rise from 4.4 billion to 5.2 billion (Table 1 and Figure 1).
|Table 1. World human population by region (millions)|
For Asia, the availability of eggs per person increased by more than 1kg between 2000 and 2011 from 8.0kg to 9.1kg, outpacing global growth of from 8.1kg to 8.9kg (Table 2 and Figure 2).
|Table 2. Global egg supplies by region (kg per person and year)|
Based on an estimate of continued expansion in global egg production, it appears that the world average availability figure will have risen to around 9.3kg per person in 2015.
Currently, mainland China with 1.42 (1.40) billion people is the most populated country followed by India with 1.28 billion. However, by 2028 these countries will both have populations of 1.45 billion, with India surpassing China in the following year.
While China’s population looks to grow by 94 million between 2010 and 2030, for India the increase will be a massive 271 million.
Indonesia has the third biggest population the total approaching 300 million by 2030.
Pakistan, the fourth most populated country in the region, will expand its numbers by almost 59 million by 2030 compared with 2010.
In stark contrast, the population of Japan is in decline being forecast to contract from 127.4 million in 2010 to 120.6 million in 2030, and further to just over 108 million by 2050.
Measurement of actual egg consumption takes place in only a few countries, the figures presented by the FAO being estimates of the available supplies divided by estimates of the human population.
There is considerable scope for error in the calculations around the estimates of layer numbers (especially where village or backyard flocks make a significant contribution to production), average yields, the average weight of an egg (where consumption is expressed in kilogrammes per person), and also in the estimates of human populations. Indeed, the variation between the theoretical and actual quantities of eggs available for consumption could range from between five per cent and 20 per cent, depending on the reliability of the data used in the calculations.
With such considerable scope for error, the data for individual countries are best used as a guide to the trend and too much attention should not be paid to the actual figures and particularly to small differences from year to year. Also, care needs to be taken when comparing the data between countries. The figures provided by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) in Table 2 and Figure 1 reveal that, when compared with 2000, the estimated egg consumption per person has increased significantly in all regions of the world.
The estimates of egg consumption per person, based on the FAO’s estimates of egg supplies available for consumption (Table 3), reveal wide differences between the Asian countries. Nevertheless, the average uptake per person per year increased in all baring a handful between 2000 and 2011.
|Table 3. Human population and egg consumption in Asia|
|Human population (millions)||Egg consumption (kg/person/year)|
|China, Hong Kong SAR||6.8||7.1||7.6||7.9||11.4||11.8||12.3||12.5||12.5||12.8||13.7|
|China, Macao SAR||0.4||0.5||0.6||0.7||11.4||13.8||14.0||14.9||14.1||13.9||15.6|
|Iran Isl. Rep.||65.9||74.5||84.2||91.3||6.7||8.8||7.6||7.7||7.4||6.6||5.5|
|Korea Dem. Peo. Rep.||22.8||24.5||25.8||26.7||4.5||5.1||4.0||4.1||4.0||4.3||4.5|
|Lao Peo. Dem. Rep.||5.4||6.4||7.7||8.8||1.7||1.9||1.9||2.1||2.0||2.0||2.0|
|Occ. Palestinian Terr.||3.2||4.0||5.1||6.4||10.5||9.5||10.5||9.8||8.6||6.9||6.4|
|Syrian Arab Rep.||16.4||21.5||25.7||29.9||6.7||7.1||7.2||3.1||2.2||3.0||7.0|
|United Arab Emirates||3.0||8.4||10.6||12.3||11.6||9.9||8.9||8.5||7.6||5.9||5.3|
|P = projected; - no figure
Although the perceived uptake in Japan is the highest in the region, the trend here has been downwards falling from a peak of 19.6kg in 2007 to 18.9kg in 2011.
In contrast, the data for mainland China shows a sharply rising uptake from 15.4kg to 18.6kg.
For countries like China and India with large human populations, an increase of even 0.1kg per person represents a large rise in the tonnage of eggs eaten.
Half of the countries in this region, however, have populations of less than 10 million. While around one-third consume less than 5kg of eggs per person per year, more than half eat less than the regional average of 9.1kg, which compares with 11.8 kg for the Americas and 12.9kg for Europe.
While it would be wrong to make direct comparisons between these regions because of differing economic standings and eating habits, there appears to be plenty of scope for further increases in Asia’s egg consumption in the years ahead.
Some more recent egg consumption figures are available for a handful of Asian countries from the International Egg Commission (IEC). However, the IEC figures are presented as the number of eggs rather than the weight of eggs eaten. As with many series of figures, the important aspect is to look at the trend rather than draw comparisons between the absolute figures.
In the IEC series, consumption in China is estimated at 300 eggs per person in 2013. At an average weight of 62g per egg, this would broadly equate with an uptake of 18.6kg per person. Of particular interest is that the consumption of egg products on a shell egg equivalent basis, in China equates to around 40 eggs per person or around 13 per cent of the total. This compares with a global figure of around seven to eight per cent and around 30 per cent in the United States and Canada and between 20 and 25 per cent in the European Union.
There are some 18 egg products factories in China with an estimated capacity of some 200,000 tonnes a year. Eight of these produce egg powder, while those situated near large urban centres concentrate on producing fresh liquid egg. Pasteurised whole egg accounts for around 45 per cent, with 55 per cent being separated yolks and whites.
In the dried egg sector in China, about half the powder is marketed as whole egg, the remainder being accounted for by separated products. However, in addition to these commercial processing operations there are a large number of food industry companies that have their own in-house egg processing facilities.
Uptake in India according to the IEC has risen from 51 eggs per person in 2009 to 63 in 2013. Even at an average egg weight of 55g, these figures point to a much higher level of consumption than the FAO data, again underlining the need to look at the trends in the different series rather than the absolute levels.
There used to be five egg product plants in India but today, there are only three and these have a combined capability of producing some 10,000 tonnes of egg powder a year, most of which is exported.
Consumption in Japan is put at 329 eggs per person in 2013. Here, almost half of the eggs are eaten as egg products when expressed in shell egg equivalent. Although there some 65 egg product plants in Japan, they cannot satisfy the domestic demand. Hence, in 2013, Japan imported some 16,000 tonnes of egg powder and 9,000 tonnes of liquid egg products.
For Turkey, egg uptake has climbed to 187 eggs per person. However, in sharp contrast to Japan, only eight eggs or four per cent of the total are eaten as products.
Some half a dozen processing plants have a combined output of 40,000 tonnes of egg products, expressed a shell egg equivalent. However, as in China, there are also many bakery and confectionery manufacturers who break their own egg requirements in-house.
After a setback in 2011, due to a shortage of supplies following outbreaks of avian influenza when consumption fell to 155 eggs per person in Iran, uptake has since recovered to reach a record 193 eggs in 2013, of which 31 (16 per cent) were considered to have been eaten in product forms.
There are fewer than 10 egg processing plants producing some 36,500 tonnes of products a year as shell egg equivalent.
Malaysians are among the biggest egg eaters in Asia and according to the IEC, uptake in Malaysia has risen from around 320 eggs per person in 2011 to almost 332 eggs in 2013, just 2.5 per cent of which are not consumed in shell.
This country has three processing plants producing some 12,500 tonnes of products a year, which supply Singapore with most of its local requirements for pasteurised liquid egg products.
Of the 40 or so million tonnes of eggs produced throughout Asia, it is estimated that some 150 liquid egg processing plants - of which 24 are capable of producing dried product - with a maximum capacity of more than one million tonnes. However, actual output is likely to be considerably less than this.
The egg products industry has grown rapidly in the past decade or so with mainland China, Korea and Taiwan in particular building new plants. As eggs are a popular ingredient in much of the region’s diet, there is enormous potential for growth in the egg products sector.
Urbanisation is creating great opportunities for work and wealth. Asian cities are expanding by 44 million people each year and according to Morten Ernst, Managing Director Sanovo Asia Pacific, some 525 million people in Asia can be considered to be middle class which is more than the total population of North America.
He says: “Economic improvement will bring unprecedented prosperity in Asia, though urbanisation will continue to be the main driver of rising incomes.”