GLOBAL POULTRY TRENDS - Americas to Produce 42 Million Tonnes of Chicken in 201419 January 2014
In his latest report, industry analyst, Terry Evans, offers an overview of the current status and future trends in chicken meat production in the Americas. Output is increasing strongly in some countries, notably Colombia and Peru, while the US and Brazil together account for almost 30 per cent of the region's total volume.
Chicken meat production in the Americas should top 41 million tonnes in 2013 and as there are signs of an upswing in some countries in the region, it could exceed 42 million tonnes in 2014 (Table 1 and Figure 1).
|Table 1. Indigenous chicken meat production (million tonnes)*|
|Broiler meat production (million tonnes):|
*Meat from the slaughter of birds originating in a country, plus the meat equivalent of any such birds exported live.
2012 estimate (2012E) and forecasts for 2013 (2013E) and 2014 (2014E) are 5m's estimates and forecasts for chicken meat and USDA forecasts for broiler meat.
Regional figures may not add up to the world totals due to rounding.
Sources: FAO for chicken meat; USDA for broiler meat
During the period 2000 to 2011, growth in this region averaged 3.6 per cent a year against a world average of almost four per cent. Consequently, this region’s contribution to the global total contracted from 46.4 per cent in 2000 to around 44.3 per cent in 2011.
Growth slowed to less than one per cent in 2012 but looks to have recovered to a little over two per cent in 2013 and could possibly accelerate to around 2.7 per cent in 2014. Nevertheless, the Americas' share is likely to have eased further to a shade below 44 per cent of an estimated global total of almost 96.5 million tonnes.
An OECD-FAO projection puts poultry meat output in 2022 at nearly 129 million tonnes, which, allowing for around 15 million tonnes for turkey, duck and goose meat production, points to a chicken meat figure about 114 million tonnes, which would register a growth rate close to two per cent a year since 2013.
The USDA assesses world broiler meat output for 2014 at 87 million tonnes (Table 1) showing a gain of 2.8 per cent over the 2013 level and nearly 20 per cent since 2008.
The most recent year for which data are available for every country is 2011 (Table 2). The figures presented are for the levels of indigenous chicken meat production, this being defined as the output from home-grown birds, plus the meat equivalent of such birds exported live. Slaughterings of culled layers are included.
|Table 2. Chicken meat production in the Americas ('000 tonnes eviscerated weight)|
|US Virgin Isl.||0.1||0.1||0.1||0.1||0.1||0.1||0.1|
|Venezuela Bol. Rep.||664.6||736.4||771.5||788.4||793.2||819.0||827.0|
Clearly, the leading producers in the Americas are the US and Brazil, these two accounting for 28.6 million tonnes or almost 72 per cent of the regional total in 2011 (Tables 2 and 3). A further five countries - Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Colombia and Canada - each produced more than one million tonnes a year. Hence, these seven countries accounted for a combined total of 36.2 million tonnes of chicken meat in 2011 or more than 90 per cent of the regional total.
Although the US is easily the largest producer in the region (Table 3), of the 'Top 7' countries, it has, with the exception of Canada, recorded the slowest growth, averaging less than two per cent a year between 2000 and 2011. Consequently, during this period, the USA’s share of the regional total has declined from a little under 52 per cent to 43 per cent.
Of the major producers, Colombia (7.1 per cent a year) and Peru (6.5 per cent) recorded the fastest growth, though the quantities involved are relatively small when compared with the US and Brazil. The latter’s industry expanded by a massive 6.1 per cent per year as output climbed from almost six million tonnes to nearly 11.5 million tonnes, boosting Brazil’s share of the regional total from 22 to nearly 29 per cent.
|Table 3. Chicken meat production ranking in the Americas in 2011 ('000 tonnes)|
|Venezuela Bol. Rep.||827.0|
|US Virgin Isl.||0.1|
While broiler output in the United States grew by almost four per cent between 2009 and 2010 to reach 16.7 million tonnes, pressure on profits then slowed growth such that annual production steadied at around this level in 2011 and 2012. Lower feed prices have stimulated expansion in 2013 to an estimated near 17 million tonnes, while currently an almost three per cent increase is envisaged for 2014 pushing output towards 17.5 million tonnes (Table 4 and Figure 2).
One USDA long-term projection points to the rate of expansion slowing to little more than 1.0 per cent a year by 2022 when output is expected to have climbed to around 19 million tonnes.
Although this series projected a lower production for 2014 of just 16.6 million tonnes, the forecasts have not been changed as the dynamics in the livestock sector among the chicken, pig and cattle sectors is complex. Chicken responds to the cyclical nature of pig production and the cattle cycle, hence higher cyclical production for other meats could slow broiler growth at some point in the next decade. However, these long-term projections are currently being re-evaluated and new figures will be released in February 2014.
|Table 4. Leading broiler meat producers in the Americas ('000 tonnes eviscerated weight)|
F = forecast; - no figure
Sources: USDA, FAO
Assuming that the USDA’s estimate of broiler production in Brazil for 2013 of just over 13 million tonnes proves realistic, this industry will have recorded a fantastic growth rate since 2000 of nearly six per cent a year (Table 4).
Back in 2000, Brazilian broiler output amounted to almost 44 per cent of that recorded by the US. By 2014, it looks as though this figure will have climbed to around 75 per cent.
After years of annual growth, Brazil’s industry suffered a setback in 2012, reflecting the difficult economic conditions that prevailed as producers wrestled with high feed costs and a lower domestic demand due to high indebtedness. A small increase in output is expected for 2013, primarily reflecting lower feed costs stemming from record soybean and maize harvests, while a further rise is anticipated for 2014. However, according to the Brazilian Poultry Union (UBABEF) production may have been cut during the second half of 2013, pointing to an annual figure of between 12.3 and 12.5 million tonnes.
A recovery in demand is expected as the result of an improved general economic situation following an increase of one per cent (which may be updated) in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2012.
Future growth will greatly depend on an expanding export business. Not only is Brazil looking to ship more products to existing major customers in Asia, the European Union and the Middle East but sellers are putting considerable efforts into increasing trade in Africa, Russia and India. According to Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture, the chicken sector will expand by some 46 per cent during the next decade to almost 19 million tonnes.
Broiler production in Mexico is forecast by the USDA to exceed three million tonnes in 2013 despite outbreaks of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H7N3 in a number of states, the largest of which is considered to supply almost 12 per cent of the country’s chicken meat.
To date, it appears that the disease’s impact on broiler production has not been as marked as in the egg sector. Continued consolidation and vertical integration have led to improved economies of scale which, to a certain extent, have helped reduce and the impact of higher feed costs.
Imported broiler meat - virtually all from the US - is estimated to account for around 18 per cent of total broiler supplies. Despite rising imports, there is considerable scope for increasing consumption and for further industry expansion. The rate of growth has fallen from around four per cent a year between 2000 and 2009 to a shade over two per cent between 2009 and 2011. Since then, it has contracted further to an estimated 1.5 per cent a year.
While, according to FAO stats on indigenous chicken meat production, Argentina was the world’s eighth largest producer in 2011, some observers consider that this country will climb to the fourth spot within in a few years.
Growth to 2011 averaged more than five per cent a year. Based on USDA statistics, expansion in broiler meat output has been even greater than this, exceeding two million tonnes for the first time in 2012. Although the increase since has slowed somewhat, it is envisaged that production will reach a record 2.1million tonnes in 2014 (Table 4).
The industry is not only benefiting from increased domestic consumption but also from a growing export business. A delegation from China has recently audited Argentinian poultry farms, a move which could open the door for the trade in whole birds and portions, as Argentina already exports chicken paws and wings to this market. The industry is targeting production of three million tonnes by 2020.
Based on FAO data the chicken meat industries in Colombia and Peru are almost identical in size with annual outputs of around 1.1 million tonnes in 2011, having recorded annual increases throughout the previous decade of 7.1 per cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively. Since 2011, USDA economists have assessed that Colombia’s expansion has slipped to around two per cent a year as output has climbed to 1.12 million tonnes. For 2013, an expansion of three per cent is envisaged. The data for Peru in Table 4 is for chicken meat rather than broiler production. It appears that the Peruvian industry has grown rapidly in recent years reflecting, in the main, a marked increase in real incomes.
Last of the leading producers in the region with good potential for expansion is Venezuela. Prior to 2011, chicken meat output grew at a moderate two per cent a year to 827,000 tonnes. Despite feed price increases, industry observers consider that the industry recorded 'significant growth' in 2012. However, it is hard to believe the claim of the National Poultry Federation (FENAVI) that output rose by 21 per cent in that year. Nevertheless, production is currently almost certain to be in the region of 1.1 million tonnes a year.